Macau GGR down 57% in past week due to seasonality, VIP expectation and COVID pressures: Bernstein

Macau’s gross gaming revenue fell 57% week-on-week in the seven-day period from Feb. 14-20, impacted by post-Chinese New Year (CNY) seasonality, low expectation VIP and another positive case of COVID-19 in the nearby city of Zhuhai.

The weekly estimate formed the core of brokerage firm Bernstein’s weekly GGR update, with channel checks showing an average daily rate (ADR) of MOP$184 million (US$23 million) against MOP$428 million (US$53 million) in the prior week period.

Macau’s GGR has shown solid growth since the start of CNY, but has been hurt by China’s growing distrust of the Omicron outbreak currently affecting Hong Kong.

The week-over-week decline was therefore larger than expected, “partly due to a new COVID case in Zhuhai and a greater travel crunch due to outbreaks in Hong Kong and concerns about the spread in China,” Bernstein analyst Vitaly Umansky said.

“China’s COVID outbreak is largely under control, but the largest grocery market, Guangdong, is still reporting occasional local cases, and the land border city, Zhuhai, reported a local case again on February 18. .. Guangdong is now facing pressure from imported cases from Hong Kong, impacting visitation.

VIP expectation has also dropped significantly in recent weeks, Umansky said.

Based on this, it values ​​Macau’s monthly GGR at MOP$6.3 billion (US$784 million) at an ADR of MOP$315 million (US$39 million) – down 65% from to February 2019 but 21% more than in February 2021.

The February GGR is now expected to be 29% higher than the January GGR of MOP$6.34 billion (US$793 million), revised down from 45% growth” due to worsening of the COVID situation in Guangdong and the drop in player visits.”